The War Prospect in Europe.
PARIS is again startled by rumors of an impending European war; so at least says Le Nord, the Russian organ in Paris, which is generally well informed whenever Russian interests are at stake. The announcement of this paper that war is to break out even before the close of next autumn, is certainly as serious as it is unexpected. For many months the political atmosphere in Europe has been uncommonly serene. There was a reorganization of the standing armies in Austria and France, but it has all along been accompanied by so emphatic assurances of peaceful intentions that the belief in a long continuance has evidently gained strength. It may be that the announcement of Le Nord is one of those sensational reports which so frequently turn up on a sudden to disquiet the money market, and then as suddenly disappear. At all events, the semi-official and usually cautious character of Le Nord will give to the above report a greater significance than is usually attributed to war rumors. Whenever a war of large dimensions shall break out in Europe, it must arise from one of the two central, still-unsolved questions—the German or the Eastern. The former, for some time, has been almost altogether lost sight of. Prussia has declared that she intends to exercise not the least pressure upon any of the Southern States, and that if Bavaria and Wurtemberg refuse to enter into a closer union with Northern Germany, Prussia will be entirely satisfied with the present arrangement. Apparently the official declarations of Prussia have given entire satisfaction in Paris, and ever since the end of the Luxemburg complication, the official papers of both Governments have been overflowing with assurances of mutual love and esteem. It is true this state of affairs may suddenly be changed; for the views of the two Governments on the solution of the German question widely differ. France has never yet renounced its opinion that Prussia has no right to overstep the line of the Maine, and that France has an international right to prevent such a movement. Prussia, on the other hand, while disclaiming any wish to coerce a South German State into a closer union, insists very strongly that the consolidation of Germany is an affair purely German, in which no foreign power has a right to meddle, and that when Prussia can arrange an agreement with any of the South German States, she will do so without any regard to what foreigners may say or think about it. This case may arise at any time. The Grand Duke of Baden is an ardent partisan of union, and the majority of the Diet and of the popular voters agree with him. He smooths the way for the consummation of the Union as rapidly as he can. Whenever he may deem fit to make a formal application for joining the North German Confederation, there would be a new complication between France and Germany. France is now a much more formidable opponent of Prussia than she was a year ago. The new military organizations have been carried through, her army, in point of numbers, being equal to that of the North German Confederation, and a recent dispatch states that the whole French infantry is now supplied with the Chassepot rifle, which Marshal Niel persists in declaring superior to any rifle in use in European armies. But, notwithstanding this military improvement, we believe that France still shrinks from a war with Germany. The proceedings of the Zollverein Parliament, which has just closed, have again proved that even the bitterest enemies of Prussia among the South Germans are ready to fight side by side with her against any foreign foe. The military force of Northern and Southern Germany combined is still superior to that of France, and neither Italy nor Austria, nor any other State, can be called upon as a trustworthy ally. We are, therefore, of opinion that if war clouds should again gather on the horizon of Europe, the Eastern and not the German question is probably the cause. In the Eastern question Russia is still virtually arrayed against Turkey, Austria, France, and England, the alliance of which States would probably be joined by Italy. It required, last year, a very emphatic remonstrance on the part of the Allies to prevent Russia from carrying out her threats against Turkey. Russia yielded for a moment, but that there has not been any notable change in her plans and policy is universally known. Russia does not conceal her continued eagerness to seize the first opportunity for achieving the independence of the Christian provinces of Turkey. Apparently inactive in Europe, she has recently been all the more demonstrative in Asia. After a rest of nearly two years in Central Asia, she has suddenly resumed her march toward the frontier of British India. Once there, she is a formidable foe of Great Britain, and, by fomenting an Indian insurrection, she may reasonably hope to prevent the English Government from rendering any effective aid to Turkey. She has recently obtained supreme influence at the Persian Court, and is goading that Government on to a war against Turkey. Her movements both in Central Asia and in Persia, are causing the utmost uneasiness both in Paris and London. The Persians appear to be ready to invade Turkey, as soon as the order is given in St. Petersburg. It is evident that the successes of the Russians in Asia have greatly changed both the aspect and prospect of the Eastern question. Turkey is now completely encircled by Russia, and it is difficult to see how she could defend herself against a simultaneous rising of the Christian population in Europe, and an invasion of the Persians in Asia. Generally, we attribute very little importance to vague reports of an approaching war in Europe; but whether the news of Le Nord is true or untrue, we regard it as unquestionable that the plot in the East thickens, and that a great war for settling the long dispute will at last become unavoidable. — N. Y. Tribune.