The Prospect for Peace
By L. A. S.
Is the present war between Russia and Japan one the result of which will be calculated to bring peace to the world? What the result will be remains, of course, to be seen; but we may consider the question whether any possible outcome of this struggle can tend to a stable equilibrium of international affairs in the Old World. This question is propounded and answered by the well-known English writer, Henry Norman, author of “All the Russias,” in an article contributed to the April World's Work. He finds from an analysis of the situation that the present war must in any event involve the interests of England in such a way, to say nothing of other European powers, that a further and greater war must naturally ensue. Mr. Norman says:— I fear it must be admitted that the view of the English government, and of a majority of the English people, has been that any defeat or humiliation of Russia would be a good thing for England. It is a deplorably short-sighted view. England's interest was never more strongly for peace than in this far Eastern quarrel. Suppose that the first of the three possible courses I have suggested comes to pass. A victorious Russia, determined to consolidate her influence over China once for all, and a Japan in danger of losing even her independence in the future—does anybody suppose that situation would not have involved England in war? Assuredly it would, and other nations, too. Again, take the third possible course. An indecisive war, dragging on from month to month, with Japan financially bleeding to death, with China gradually being dragged in—first as bandits, then as irregulars, then as regulars, and with the acute danger of some Balkan State taking advantage of Russia's preoccupation—would that be a state of things we would contemplate with equanimity, or indeed without interference? Again, surely not. The triumph of Japan over Russia would mark the beginning of a new era in world-affairs. For the first time in modern history an Asiatic race would have conquered a western Christian race—and the victory would be all the more remarkable in that it had chiefly occurred on the sea, the great field of western power. The prestige of the West as against the East would be broken. There is not an Oriental nation that would not feel that a new era had dawned—that the injustice and oppression of ages was not about to be destroyed at last. In every bazaar in India, from end to end of China, in tent and tea-house throughout Central Asia, in Afghanistan, in Siam, in the Philippines, in Arabia, in Egypt, in Turkey, the leaven of unrest, of hope, of the always smoldering enmity to the western man, would seethe and swell. In Asia all native eyes would turn to Japan. Japan's eyes would turn first to China, and with the enormous prestige that the defeat of Russia would have given her, she would mold China to her will. A Chinese civil service, a reformed Chinese government and law and education and finance, would grow under her fostering care and her wise guidance—all excellent. Then would grow, too, first a Chinese army, and then a Chinese navy—still under Japanese control. The western powers would be growing uneasy by this time, and would be protesting and inquiring. But it would not be an inviting task to coerce Japan into ceasing to educate China. “You encouraged me to adopt western ideas,” Japan would say; “why should not China be allowed to make progress also?” And there would be no answer. Then would arise the cry some of us have long foreseen. Then would be the end of western domination in the far East.