The Survey by Francis McLellan Wilcox

Review and Herald Publishing Association · Takoma Park Station, Washington, D. C. · Jul 31, 1913

The Survey

By Francis McLellan Wilcox

Among the Nations

JUDGING from the present indications, the year 1913 will present as many serious international complications as did the year 1912. The whole political outlook today is one either of warfare or of strained relations between nations, to whatever quarter of the globe we look.

Affairs in Mexico

The Mexican Republic on the south is still torn and distracted with internal dissension. While Huerta still ostensibly holds the reins of power, in more than a dozen different states the standard of revolt has been raised, and the general public is made the prey of armed marauding bands, with consequent robbery, pillage, and incendiarism. Several of the governments of Europe, concerned for the safety of their citizens and for their money investments, and tired of the dilatory tactics pursued by the central government in subduing this guerrilla warfare, have made earnest representations to the United States government regarding the situation. At this writing Ambassador Henry Lane Wilson is on his way from Mexico City to Washington to present a personal report to the administration of the actual conditions which exist, with a view to determining the question as to whether the Huerta government shall receive recognition, and what position the United States government shall take regarding the situation.

Revolution in China

Turning to the Far East, to the latest republic in the sisterhood of nations, we find that the Chinese government is threatened in the same way as is the government of Mexico, only perhaps with a better-organized and more-determined resistance. The province of Kwang-tung has declared its independence of the general government. Canton has been made the rebel capital. The Peking government is considered seriously menaced, and present prospects indicate the establishment of a northern and a southern government in China.

The Eastern Question

The Balkan situation is far from settled, although it is hoped that with the depletion of their armies and the exhaustion of their treasuries the warring states may agree to a peace settlement. Previous to the war of the Balkan allies with Turkey, in March, 1912, an agreement was reached by Bulgaria and Servia whereby in event of victory in a war with Turkey, the larger part of Macedonia should go to Bulgaria, Albania falling to Servia and Greece. With the proposal to create a separate state in Albania, as a result of the war, the status of this agreement was modified in the judgment of the Greeks and Servians. Bulgaria, however, does not take this view of the situation. While occupying two thirds of the territory captured by the allies, her desires for territorial expansion seem to have grown, and she demanded all the territory assigned to her in the treaty made with Servia. As a result of the recent engagements, Bulgaria has lost much of the territory of which she became possessed, the Greek and Servian armies gaining many important victories. Turkey itself, taking advantage of the situation, has taken an active hand in affairs and according to the latest reports has overrun conquered territory and reoccupied Adrianople.

The possession of Adrianople again by the Turkish army brings the European concert face to face with a most delicate and difficult situation. A despatch from London, published in the Washington Post of July 23, says:—

The official announcement made at Constantinople that the Turkish troops had reoccupied Adrianople created the worst possible impression in diplomatic circles, and the powers immediately began an exchange of views to find the best means of checkmating Turkey's action, which is looked upon as a clear-cut defiance of all Europe.

The next few hours are likely to decide whether forces hitherto unengaged shall enter the Balkan cockpit. Russia is understood to be ready to accept the mandate of Europe to compel the Porte to respect the treaty of London, and the British cabinet tomorrow will consider whether this government shall consent to active intervention by Russia.

Premier Asquith's speech at Birmingham Monday evening was intended to warn Turkey against just such a development, which would involve Russian occupation of both sides of the Bosporus, and the gripping of Constantinople both in the front and in the rear.

The question of the position of Turkey and the course to be pursued toward her continues to be one of most serious moment. During the last few weeks there has been much discussion in Turkish official circles, and also on the part of the general public, over the advisability of the removal of the sultan's capital from Europe to some point in Asia. Says Current Opinion for July:—

A plan to remove the sultan's capital from Constantinople to an interior city of Asia proved so fruitful of factional strife that the grand vizier summarily suppressed discussion of the topic in the Ikdam and other dailies just before he was killed. The suggestion is understood to find favor with the Young Turks and with the sultan himself. It is opposed by the Sheik ul Islam and the clergy as a retreat in the face of the infidel, if the Paris Figaro is accurate. No such scheme would be tolerated by the powers, according to the official organ of Czar Ferdinand in Sofia, because the Turks could reorganize their army under cover in the interior of Asia. While the sultan is under observation, he can be kept out of mischief. This is taken to mean that the Balkan powers may get into a new conflict among themselves over Constantinople, upon which both Ferdinand and Constantine still cherish designs. The Young Turks are urged to remove their country's capital from the historic city by Field-Marshal von der Goltz, the great German soldier who did so much for their military education. He warns the world in the Vienna Neue Freie Presse against the inference that the future of the sultan's empire is to be calm and peaceful. He urges the Young Turks to take in hand their military reorganization at once. Let them fix their capital at Aleppo, or even at Damascus. “No government with its seat at Constantinople has remained for long healthy and strong.” No doubt, the shifting of the capital would be no easy thing. Rulers and grandees would not want to leave the “paradise on earth.” But the statesman who carried out the idea would win immortal glory. The German emperor himself is said to welcome the idea, but for some reason it is not liked in St. Petersburg.

The final outcome of this question is clear, at least to the student of prophecy. That Turkey will be driven from Europe is inevitable. Where she first will choose to make her headquarters we cannot say. Aleppo, Damascus, or some other city may be chosen. Eventually, we believe, as indicated by the prophecy of Daniel 11, the seat of Turkish rule will be transferred to Jerusalem. But these retreats and makeshifts will prove of no avail; for this nation, the same as others who have forgotten God, is destined to come to an untimely end. Helped and bolstered up now as the result of national intrigue and jealousy, there will come a time when it will be left alone and defenseless. By the fulfilment of prophecy before our eyes, and in the many gathering signs on every side, let us be admonished to faithfulness. F. M. W.