Notwithstanding Peace Congresses, notwithstanding all the mighty efforts that able men are putting forth for peace, notwithstanding earnest prayers which are offered for the same purpose, the preparation for war still goes on, and must go on until the great battle of Armageddon is fought.
It was not a demand for war which the Lord made by His prophet eight hundred years before Christ. He is not stirring up the spirit of war. The prophet simply uttered what would be manifest throughout the world:
“Proclaim ye this among the nations; Prepare war; stir up the mighty men; let all the men of war draw near, let them come up. Beat your plowshares into swords, and your pruning-hooks into spears: let the weak say, I am strong. Haste ye, and come, all ye nations round about, and gather yourselves together: thither cause Thy mighty ones to come down, O Jehovah. Let the nations bestir themselves, and come up to the Valley of Jehoshaphat: for there will I sit to judge all the nations round about.” Joel 3:9-12.
Note also that this is in the harvest-time of the earth; and Jesus says, “The harvest is the end of the world.” Matt. 13:39. Note, too, that the culmination of this great strife is at the very beginning of the day of the Lord, when all the nations of the earth are in “the valley of decision” over the mighty moral questions which are facing humanity at the present time.
There is a tendency, in a great nation, to rest quiet and at ease. That is especially true in the United States; and yet just as soon as the United States went outside of its own boundary, purchased Alaska, not geographically connected with its own home domain, took possession of Hawaii, conquered and possessed the Philippines, it launched itself as a great world power, and these possessions demanded that it too should become a great warlike power among the nations.
A mighty display the United States made in her cruise of sixteen battle-ships around the world; and most Americans thought that with such a fleet as that, we could conquer the nations. And yet America’s condition at the present time is what General Homer Lea calls “the valor of ignorance.”
Three very strong, convincing articles have already appeared in “Harper’s Weekly” by the gentleman named. These articles go to show the “vulnerability of the United States to armed invasion.” He considers the Pacific Ocean, and declares that the United States, having the possessions that it does in that body of water, must maintain them or lose all that it possesses outside of the United States itself. This Government holds in its nominal possession the great strategic points of the Pacific—Alaska, Hawaii, Tutuila, and the Philippines.
General Lea declares that Japan, an insular kingdom, covets all these possessions and feels that she must be the ruling power in the Pacific; that her labor for some years has been with that purpose in mind. Eight years ago she conquered China as a Pacific power. Four years ago she forever shut Russia from the Pacific. When the United States seized the Hawaiian Islands there was no protest raised on the part of any of the nations except Japan. But Japan entered her protest, “and notified the American Government that she would not then or at any time in the future acquiesce in the control of the Hawaiian Islands by this nation.” “Years have now passed, but the protest of Japan has never been withdrawn, nor have preparations to bring about in due time its enforcement ever ceased. This Republic may forget, or after its conquests sleep; but in that Silent Pentagon (the Genro, or Five Elder Statesmen) where rest together the scepter of the Mikado and the sword of the samurai, there is no forgetfulness, and in their slumbers—dreams.”
General Lea connects with his articles a map of the Pacific, and shows how exceedingly important are all these strategic points to Japan, how that without them she must inevitably fall. Once in her possession, it is almost an impossible thing to wrest them from her; and yet the United States Government seems to feel, we are told, that the mere fact of having possession of these strategic points is sufficient, though they are unfortified, unmanned, an easy prey to a power like the Japanese.
He also tells us that the increase of population in Japan demands some other outlet. Her little islands are overcrowded. On the other hand Europe is becoming overcrowded. Europe has within its borders the greatest nations of the world, nearly a quarter of its population, and yet less than one twelfth of the world’s land. Japan is greater in population than the United Kingdom, and pos- sesses only one two hundred fiftieth part of the earth’s surface, while the suzerainty of the United States extends over one fourth of the earth’s surface. Within that suzerainty are included not simply its own dominions, but the South American continent as well. For it is contended that America is as determined that the Monroe Doctrine shall be upheld, as it is that the Constitution shall be maintained. Yet these possessions which are to a greater or less extent under the protection of the United States, are marvelously rich and of sparse population as compared with the Old World. And General Lea truly remarks:
“How unreasonable it is to contend that the combined nations of Europe, with all their military strength, shall remain restricted to one twelfth of this world’s land, burrowed into and hewn over for the last thousand years, while this Republic, without armies, shall maintain dominion over one half the inexploited lands of the world; or that Japan, possessed of two thirds the population of this nation, the military organization fiftyfold greater, shall continue to exist on her rocky isles, that are, inclusive of Korea, but one two hundred fiftieth of the earth’s lands; while an undefended one half lies under the guns of her battle-ships.”
He declares that while the probabilities of an international war at the present time tend more to a struggle with Japan than with any other country, the chances of war are equally possible with other powers, and are existent in a modified form with still other nations.
Then are pointed out the disadvantages of the United States with all the strength of her navy on the Atlantic seaboard. It is also shown that Japan is now supreme in a military and naval sense on the Asiatic Coast north of Hongkong. By her alliance with Great Britain, the elimination of the British power in the Pacific has been accomplished, subtly. There remains only one power for Japan to deal with, and that power is the United States.
In order that Japan may control the Pacific, it is necessary that she should possess the Philippines and the other points of strategic values which have been named.
“With the Philippines in the possession of Japan, the dominion of European powers in Asia and the Pacific seas ends, and ends forever. By the time England’s alliance with Japan ceases, her fortresses in the far East will possess for her no value other than what affection may still hold for ruins, and ambitions that are no more.”
It is argued further, and clearly, that if Japan is going to maintain her supremacy, the Philippines must be in her possession. Comparison is made between the navy of the United States and the navy of Japan, in statistical tables. In vessels and tonnage the navy of the United States ranks third, and Japan fifth; but measured by real effective service, Japan’s navy is superior. While the United States has more battle-ships than Japan, she is greatly inferior in armed cruisers and torpedo craft. Then, too, since Japan conquered Russia she has built a new type of battle-ship equal to any three battle-ships now in the American navy; so that while the American battle-ships exceed in11number those of the Japanese, the latter possesses nearly forty per cent more big guns.
In men Japan is greatly superior. Captains are not commissioned in this country until they are 56 years of age. In Japan the average is 38—a difference of nearly 20 years in which to give good service for the country. Captains in the American navy have only four and one half years in this grade, and in Japan they have eight,—twice as much experience. In the American navy Rear-admirals are not commissioned until they reach the advanced age of 60; in Japan they receive this rank at 44. American sea-going flag-officers only pass 1½ years in this grade; in Japan such officers are on duty for 11 years. Japan constructs a 20,000-ton battle-ship of the new type in two years, and an armored cruiser in less time. In the United States, over 5 years is required to build a 16,000-ton battle-ship, and 5 years and 2 months to build an armored cruiser.
We are also told that in Japan the army and navy are beyond the reach of politics. Changes in the Japanese cabinet do not affect the ministers of war and navy. They are free to take action and immediate action, change types of ships whenever such change is necessary, and the Japanese army and navy have immediately responded to all changes demanded. This all know is not so in America.
The Struggle on Land
The conclusion this critic comes to after a due comparison of the forces which might be called into action at the present time on each side, is that the United States would have no hope whatever of holding what she has already nominally in her possession in the Pacific, or of recovering them if they were once in the power of Japan; but he contends that while the navy will be a strong incident in the war of the future, the struggle will be fought out by land armies after all. All wars have been, and so in the future will be, determined by land warfare. So he contends that war between the United States and Japan will be upon land. A comparison is made between the forces of the two powers. Japan could almost immediately, we are told, place in the field a million and a quarter of men, all of whom have had three years’ training in the regular army, and over eight hundred thousand of whom had the experience of from one year to a year and a half on the battle-fields of Manchuria.
The officers of these forces are technically trained in military science. The American army in time of peace is limited to 100,000 men, but that force is reduced to less than 50,000. In case of an attack on the Pacific Coast, the United States could not mobilize an army or a field force of 20,000 men, while 600,000 would be necessary.
It took the United States two months to find transports for the few troops that were sent to the Philippines. If now it should utilize the eight American transpacific steamers that constitute the entire American merchant marine in the Pacific, it would require two years to transport 100,000 troops to the Philippines. To oppose their landing, a force no larger than the capacity of the transports per voyage would be necessary.
The utter lack of auxiliary vessels was manifest when in 1907 the 16 American battle-ships were convoyed by 28 vessels flying foreign flags, and yet without them the American battle-ships could not have steamed beyond the sphere of their Atlantic bases. On the other hand, the Japanese transport fleet consists of a hundred steamers, which can transport at one time 200,000 men with their entire equipment. These men would be able to reach the Philippines in 5 days; Hawaii in 14; the coast of California in 22; the coast of Alaska, Washington, and Oregon, in less than 20.
The coast defenses of the United States, we are told, consist of 67 forts, defending 28 harbors; but according to the report to Congress in 1906, 268 batteries were out of commission, and only 124 in commission; of 1,100 guns employed, only 390 could be brought into action. To fully man these 67 forts, requires 1,634 officers and 40,675 men; but for these there are now available only 357 officers and 10,700 men. The regular army is 30 per cent below the minimum required by law, and the percentage of deficiency in officers is very much greater.
Then regarding the “moral” quality of the armies: It is rightly pointed out that desertions show something of the loyalty of an army. In Japan desertions are unknown. In the United States during 1906 there occurred in the national army of only 60,000 men, 6,280 desertions.
Regarding the physical standing of the armies: In the American Civil War more than 4 men died from preventable sickness to every 1 killed. In the Spanish-American War, 14 died of disease to 1 on the battlefield. In the Japanese army during the Russian War, 4 deaths resulted from bullets to 1 from sickness. If the ratio of the Civil War should be maintained in a war between Japan and the United States, for every ten thousand American soldiers killed on the field, more than 40,000 would die from preventable sickness; while for every 10,000 Japanese killed, only 2,500 would die from disease. Should the total deaths on the battle-field during the war amount to 50,000 for each nation, the American casualties from disease alone would be more than 200,000; while the Japanese losses would amount to only 12,500.
But should America’s later war—the Spanish-American—form the basis for comparison, the total American losses from disease would amount to 700,000 as against 12,500 Japanese.
Under the present military system of the United States, there could not be mobilized in any one place a field army of 19,000 regular soldiers, in the same period of time that Japan would employ in getting ready an army of half a million veteran troops. For the United States to enlist, equip, and train to the same degree of efficiency a similar force, would require not less than three years.
We have not presented all of the striking comparisons which General Lea has made, by a long way. Nor have we pointed out many other things which are perfectly obvious to the careful and thoughtful reader. He certainly shows that the United States must relinquish her position as a world power, confining herself wholly to the boundaries of the United States proper, or she must place her army and navy in that position where she is able to control the Pacific on the one side, and to meet any power which might come against her from the European side of the Atlantic.
But this means preparation for war, and that will mean greater preparation for war on the part of other powers in the world. It is strange that thoughtful Christians can not see in the prophecies which God has given in His Word concerning this very time, evidences that we are nearing the end. It is not alone in Joel that we are told this, but Jeremiah teems with warnings of the very times in which we live; and in the 16th chapter of Revelation we are told that the spirits of demons are going throughout all the world to prepare the world for the battle of the great day.
We are faced by the great fact that the nations have entered the contest; and from a purely political point of view, a world point of view, the point of view of the natural heart of man, there is no drawing back. Men may talk peace, but there is no peace, and this is just what the Word of God tells us; and it also warns us that the cry of peace which will be raised even throughout the world, by “many people” and “many nations,” is a false cry which will issue in the great battle of Armageddon. Yet God calls His children to peace, and reveals to them the only true, encouraging outcome of it all, and that is the second coming of our Lord Jesus Christ, the Prince of Peace, and the eternal inheritance of peace which lies beyond.
