THE SITUATION IN THE EAST.
WITHIN a few months three treaties have been made to settle the affairs of the East. If that of St. Stephano had not been resisted by England and Austria, we should at least have known where we were. We should have been under Russian influence, but we should have had peace and a period of repose. The treaty of Berlin and the Cyprus treaty have placed us in such a position that confusion reigns everywhere in the empire, and no one but a prophet could pretend to predict anything of the future. I can do no more than give you an idea of the situation as it exists to-day. In European Turkey, Austria was to have peacefully occupied Bosnia and Herzegovina for a few years; but she has thus far failed to come to any understanding with the Porte, and has been forced to conquer these provinces at a cost of millions of money and thousands of lives. It is generally believed here that she will not only annex these provinces, but come on, in the spring, to Salonica. Montenegro was to have had an addition to her territory, but she has not yet obtained possession of it. A formidable insurrection, under the name of the Albanian League, not only resists this annexation to Montenegro, but now defies the Turkish government, and is murdering the Turkish officials. It is understood here that this movement was originated and fostered by the Turkish government to furnish it with an excuse for not giving any territory to Greece, and to this day it is spoken of with favor by the Turkish newspapers in Constantinople; but it has now gone beyond the control of the government, and there is talk of sending 50,000 troops to put it down. It is more than doubtful, however, whether Turkish troops will fight against their Mohammedan brethren in Albania, and what the end will be no one can foresee. Coming a little nearer to Constantinople, we have another insurrection in the Rhodope mountains; which is directed by three Englishmen, and is supposed by the people there to be under the patronage of the English government. It will probably unite with the Albanian League. A little farther off we have Greece threatening war to compel the rectification of her frontier which was recommended at Berlin, but which the Turks have no idea of granting. Near at hand we have the new province of Eastern Roumelia, which is still occupied by the Russians, but the Berlin Congress appointed a commission to organize this province, and decreed that the Russians should leave it in three months after the work of the commission was completed. At the same time the Turkish troops were to occupy the Balkans between this Province and Bulgaria. The commission is now holding its sessions in Constantinople; but the Bulgarians declare that they will not accept the decision of the Congress which divided them into two provinces. They have organized an army, and are prepared to resist by force. The impression here is that the commission will fail to come to any unanimous conclusion, and that the Russians will remain to assist the Bulgarians. Who will undertake to drive them out? Crossing the Bosphorus into Asia, we have all Armenia in a state of ferment, the Christians leaving in crowds to emigrate to Russia, and the Kurds in open rebellion. Farther west, we have a formidable rebellion163in the Kozan mountains and the Arabs in a state of discontent as far south as Bagdad, a rebellion in Arabia, and general insecurity all through Asia Minor. At Constantinople the government seems paralyzed. There is no man among the Pachas strong enough to rule, and no such unity of sentiment as might result in a strong party combination. The Sultan is no doubt a well-meaning man who would be glad to do the right thing if he knew what it was, but he is constitutionally timid, not to say cowardly, and he can know but little of the true state of the country. In practice he simply obstructs everything and defends his absolute power as the only hope of the empire. When we consider the difficulties which now beset this feeble and tottering government, the only wonder is that it can stand for a day. Aside from the funded debt of $1,000,000,000, upon which it pays no interest, it has an enormous floating debt representing all the expenses of the war, its employees are unpaid, its army has not been disbanded or even reduced, its paper money has become almost worthless. The people have lost heart and expect every day some new revolution or a renewal of the war. The government does not know which to distrust the most, its friends or its enemies. It fears that England intends to appropriate Asia Minor, and Austria to take what is left of Turkey in Europe. The Sultan is almost ready to throw himself into the arms of Russia as his only refuge. Indeed, it is difficult to see what else he can do unless he is ready to become the vassal of England, and so far as the immediate humiliation is concerned, it would be greater than would be involved in a close alliance with Russia. It was generally believed in America and in England that the treaty in regard to Cyprus implied the practical supremacy of England, but it now appears that neither England nor Turkey had any clear idea of its meaning. The Sultan regarded it as a new guarantee of his power, and the English Cabinet had no idea about it beyond the fact that it secured Cyprus as a place where, in case of need, they could concentrate an Indian army. But it may have results which will equally astonish Beaconsfield and the Sultan. Thus far England has done nothing but offer advice to the Turks in regard to certain administrative reforms. This has as yet been neither accepted nor rejected by the Turks. They wish to reject it, and if they accepted it they have no money and no men to execute the reforms proposed. So everything remains in suspense. Every day some new plan is proposed and found to be impracticable. There can be no doubt that the best thing for the people, both Turks and Christians, would be for the Sultan to put himself unreservedly into the hands of England, and thus force the English government to furnish the men and the money necessary for the government of the country. Will he do it? No one can answer this question to-day, but it may be answered before this letter reaches America.—Correspondence of Christian Union, Constantinople, Oct. 8.