THE SITUATION IN EUROPE.
By E. E. Parlin
THE North American Review for March contains an interesting article from Archibald Forbes, on the "Outlook for War in Europe." He confines himself to a consideration of the subject in two divisions, first, whether the present extensive military preparations must inevitably result in a great war; and, second, when the outbreak of the tremendous conflict may be looked for. The enormous expenditures for military preparation, to one who looks at the burden of taxation, is referred to as satisfactory evidence to many that an early war is inevitable, but he argues that, however burdensome as is the armed existing peace, resort to war would, in the nature of things, be infinitely more costly. He suggests that even the expenses of war would be readily borne if, by such means, a permanent reduction in military expenditures could be obtained, but experience has demonstrated that modern wars have been invariably followed by increased armaments. He reasons, because of the "Triple Alliance" and the "Dual Alliance" which have been formed in Europe, that there are no longer five powers whose action is liable to precipitate a general war, but only two great powers. That the five great powers no longer possess the independent, individual freedom to declare war, and that the initiative must be taken either by the Dual Alliance, consisting of France and Russia, or by the Triple Alliance, consisting of Germany, Austria, and Italy. The end of the year 1895 is as far in the future as his intimate acquaintance with the situation in Europe leads him to postpone the clash of arms. Germany, the leading power of the Triple Alliance, is stronger to-day than ever before, by the addition of the 70,000 men which the Army Act of last October sanctioned, and with a large amount of treasure in reserve as a war fund, is ready for war on short notice. Austria, while not as fully equipped for war as Germany, is supplied with all modern appliances, and is in a position to furnish a formidable army with but little delay. Italy is referred to as not being in the highest condition of efficiency, and would be a very uncertain factor in the event of hostilities. Of the Dual Alliance France is said to be at the very apex of her military strength and preparedness. By the system of drilling which has been in operation since 1889, every man fit for service and of proper age has received military training. As the population of France is no longer increasing, she cannot add to the numbers of available men, but her naval armament is constantly being augmented by the adoption of the latest and most approved devices of marine warfare. Russia for many years has been gradually concentrating her regular army on the western frontier, thereby not only protecting the weakest and most exposed portion of her territory, but also increasing the facility of mobilization in case any difficulty should arise with her neighbors. At the first outbreak of war the reserves would be called for from the interior, and this, owing to the distance and the lack of proper railroad facilities, would necessitate a delay of two or three months, during which time the Russian army on the frontier would no doubt confine itself to the defensive. As to finances, Russia seems to be in a fairly prosperous condition. Her Minister of Finance has just announced that the treasury has funds on hand to meet "any considerable disbursements during the year, and that there is not the slightest necessity for incurring a fresh loan." She has accumulated a fund of $20,000,000 in gold to meet the expenses of her army operating on foreign soil where her paper would not be received. The only obstacle which Russia would have to meet in the event of an early conflict would be that of securing, on short notice, modern implements of warfare. Because of the lack of proper arms, and which could not by any possibility be provided earlier than the spring of 1896, an outbreak before that time is hardly thought to be probable. The total number of field troops available which could be brought into action in case of war, is estimated at 10,413,905. This large number of men is almost equally divided between the Dual and the Triple Alliance. The general situation is summed up as strange, lurid, and in a sense humiliating. Armed Europe waits for the ultimate mandate of one man, and whether it shall be peace or war is the problem which Tsar Alexander III., alone and single handed, is to determine. One thing only is certain, that, when the conflict comes, it will be a struggle to the death, and the vanquished nations must reckon on suffering dismemberment.