Review and Herald, Vol. 93, No. 50. (10/9/1916)

Review and Herald

Oct 9, 1916

Review and Herald Publishing Association · Takoma Park, Washington, D. C. · Oct 9, 1916

The Eastern Question

By Arthur G. Daniells

Its Relation to the Great World War, and Its Meaning in the Light of Prophecy

By Arthur G. Daniells

The most gigantic, devastating war recorded in the annals of the human race, suddenly broke upon the world in the summer of 1914. Into this cataclysm have been swept fourteen nations, representing three fifths of the human family, and three fifths of the land area of the world. The nations that have not been drawn into this struggle are fighting to keep out. It is not without good reason that this great conflict has been named “The World War.”

A Heavy Toll in Human Life

The world is staggering under the terrific blows already dealt by this great war, and the end is not yet. The reports of the casualties for the two years of unprecedented warfare are paralyzing. Four million killed, eight million wounded, four million missing—a total of sixteen million. And yet, after these fearful losses, there are still twenty millions of men under arms; and these millions, when called to the front, were in the prime of life. They were the strength and flower of the men of this generation.

Never before in the history of the world have such vast armies been assembled on battle fields, never has warfare been so deadly, never has the toll in wounded and dead been so heavy.

A TWO YEARS’ WAR RECORD Killed ............ 4,000,000 Wounded .......... 8,000,000 Missing ........... 4,000,000 Total casualties ...... 16,000,000 Cost ............... $50,000,000,000 This war has filled the world with more sorrowing relatives, fatherless children, and broken-hearted widows, than has any other war since the world began.

A Heavy Toll in Money

And never before has the cost of war in money been so great. In round numbers the two years’ war has cost the nations engaged in it fifty billions of dollars. The average cost has been about sixty-eight million dollars a day. At the present time it costs one hundred million a day. The total expense for operating the government of the United States during 1915 was a little more than seven hundred million dollars—the amount required to finance this great war only one short week. These figures are truly appalling.

Waste and Ruin of Previous Wars

The war now going on far exceeds, in magnitude and waste and ruin, any previous war of which we have any records.

In the Napoleonic Wars, covering a period of nineteen years (1796-1815), the losses were six millions of men, and the cost fifteen billion dollars.

The losses in the war between Great Britain and the United States (1812-14) were fifty thousand men and one hundred eighty million dollars.

The Crimean War (1853-56) cost eight hundred thousand men and a little less than two billion dollars.

The toll of the Franco-Prussian War (1870-71), which has always been considered heavy, was only two hundred twenty-five thousand men and three billion dollars.

The Boer War (1899-1902) destroyed one hundred twenty-five thousand soldiers at a cost of one and a quarter billion dollars.

In the Spanish-American War (1898) six thousand lives were lost at an expense of eight hundred thousand dollars.

The losses in the Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905) were heavy—five hundred fifty thousand men, and nearly two billion dollars.

These seven great wars, extending over a period of more than a hundred years, record a loss of less than 8,000,000 men and an expenditure of less than twenty-five billion dollars—a little less than half the terrible destruction wrought in two short years by the war now in progress.

But, as Hamilton Holt truly says, “It is impossible to compute statistically the grief, misery, and want necessarily involved in these amazing totals. Hunger and suffering do not lend themselves to the processes of arithmetic. Blasted homes are not to be expressed in algebraic symbols, and stunted lives are not to be interpreted by mathematics.”

This war has filled the world with more sorrowing relatives, fatherless children, and broken-hearted widows than has any other war since the world began.

It would seem that the terrible destruction already wrought would so appall the rulers of the nations involved that they would find some way to bring this struggle to an end. But it does not. The combatants apparently grow more determined as the war lengthens. One writer declares that this war seems “like some infernal dream devised by the imps of hell sitting in an eternity of inventive council.” Another says: “The rulers of nations are stupid. It would seem that they were blinded by the gods. It is as if madness is upon them, a fatality, incurable; a mania, fatal, malignant, satanic.”

Nothing Like It Since the World Began

There is a growing conviction that this world struggle is a far more serious affair than was at first realized. The editor of Life (Australia) says: “The great war grows in scale and significance as each day passes. It is plainly ‘the war of all the centuries.’ . . . The war will not only give the world a new map; it will give to civilized history a new date, and perhaps a new form.”

Woodrow Wilson, President of the United States, says: “The world has never before in the history of mankind seen war on such a scale, seen war with so many terrible features, seen the sweep of destruction comparable to that which is now devastating Europe. . . . We are witnessing a cataclysm, and God only knows what the issue will be.”

Always thoughtful and temperate in his utterances, William Howard Taft, former President of the United States, says of this war: “Nothing like it has occurred since the world began. It is a cataclysm. The future looks dark indeed.”

Near the close of the first year of the war, an observant writer said: “The most critical moment of the world’s history is upon us. . . . Events are transpiring to stun the stoutest mind. We are at time’s meridian.”

ARTHUR G. DANIELLS, EVANGELIST, WORLD-WIDE TRAVELER, AND LECTURER

Mr. H. G. Wells, an English writer, says: “This is already the vastest war in history. It is a war not of nations, but of mankind. It is a war to exorcise a world madness and end an age.”

The Cause and the Meaning

As the months have rolled by and the horrors of this great tragedy have been driven deeper into the hearts of multiplied millions, the question has been repeated with increasing emphasis: What is the cause of this war? What are these nations fighting so desperately about? What is the cause for which such heavy toll is being paid? What does it mean, and what will be the end of the struggle?

Facing these pressing inquiries, the editor of the Springfield Republican says: “Writers who can tell a stupefied world what this fearful portent means, who can throw light on the great fundamental problems of the race, and give some hint as to its destiny, will have an attentive and even anxious audience.”

This “fearful portent” must have both a cause and a meaning, and both should be made as plain as day. A world war is not being fought without a cause. The rulers, the premiers, the secretaries of foreign affairs, the ambassadors, the great generals and admirals of those warring nations know very well what is at stake in this great conflict.

Furthermore, a world war must have a great meaning as well as a great cause. What this colossal struggle means to the world, how it will leave mankind when it is over, what will follow—these are questions of supreme interest to the whole human race. And the meaning concerns us more vitally and seriously than does the cause.

Unquestionably this great war belongs to a series of epoch-making events which lead toward one great culminating event in the history and destiny of the human race. Only a partial explanation of its meaning can be found in the field of international politics, treaties, commerce, and the like. Not until the realm of the supernatural is entered, and the high purpose and controlling power of the Supreme Being are recognized, can there be found a full and satisfactory explanation of this great catastrophe that has overtaken us.

The insistent demand for an explanation of what is felt to be the “greatest crime in all history,” has led to a most diligent study of the real cause, and to a clean-cut statement of the findings in this investigation. Members of cabinets, statesmen, and diplomats have taken the world into their confidence, revealing and explaining to them international policies, intrigues, and complications that had previously been labeled “confidential” and “secret.” Editors, historians, and veteran war correspondents have dug their way into the hidden ramifications of international affairs, and have brought to the public the facts they have found.

As a result of this thorough research and candid explanation, there is a far better understanding now of the cause of the war than there was when it broke upon the world so suddenly two years ago. And a remarkable unanimity of views regarding the cause has been reached. While it is clearly recognized that there are a number of secondary contributing causes, yet there is a general agreement that one primary outstanding cause looms above all the others.

“A World-Change”

In his statement of the cause of this world conflict, Dr. Hobhouse, in The World in Conflict, says: “It is not in reality one event that has changed the world. It is a world-change that has culminated in a great event.” This is an important discrimination. The devastating war into which the world has been plunged is more than an event. It is the culmination of a “world-change” that has been effected by decades of international expansions, rivalries, and intrigues.

These world conditions that have been created by international developments are seriously conflicting. The settled, determined policies of the nations are conflicting in so many vital points that war is inevitable, unless some of these policies are abandoned. But abandonment would mean serious loss, and the possible elimination of some of the independent kingdoms. This, none are willing to risk.

Fighting for a World Highway

Writing from the war zone to the Christian Herald of May 31, 1916, Maynard Owen Williams gives some very direct statements regarding the primary cause of the war. He says: “The war is being fought, not for a European capital, but for a world highway. . . . Russia is fighting for access to the Mediterranean. . . . England, through her fleet, the honeycombed heights of Gibraltar, and the Suez ditch at Suez, will maintain control of the inland sea. . . . Germany is fighting to win a commercial triumph over the sea route to the East. . . . Turkey is on the shortest line between the population centers of the world. . . . Germany is fighting for this trade route.”

Frederic C. Howe, author of “Why War?” says: “Access to, free passage through, or control of, the Mediterranean is the permanent objective behind the foreign policy of all the greater European powers. . . . It is an objective, however, that lies at the very industrial and commercial life of Great Britain and Russia, that is bound up with all the ambitions of Germany, and that underlies the industrial and financial aspirations of Italy and the Balkan States. For the Mediterranean is the greatest trade route in the world. It is the gateway from the Occident to the Orient.”

“The recent shifting of the seat of war from the French and Russian frontiers is a shifting from assumed centers of conflict to the actual center of conflict, a conflict which, under diplomatic conversations and conventions, has been going on for the greater part of twenty years. And it is a struggle almost as old as the world.”

The Real Bone of Contention

It is the situation outlined in these excerpts that has led to the general statement by nearly all authorities that the Near East is the “storm center” of this great cataclysm. Prof. Roland G. Usher, of Washington University, St. Louis, says:—

“Sir Harry Johnston, a traveler, statesman, and diplomat of repute, has declared that ‘Constantinople is really the core of the war.’” Then Professor Usher adds: “It should now be evident that there is much to be said for the view that the key to the present situation is Constantinople. We are dealing with a world war whose results are not expected to develop in Europe proper. The key to this situation lies in Constantinople, and the Turk holds it.”

Soon after the war began, one of Europe’s oldest and most experienced diplomats ventured to tell the world what this great conflict was about. Beginning with Austria’s declaration of war on Serbia, he says:—

“What is the vital, paramount importance of Serbia, that Austria and Germany should have been willing to risk their very existence as nations to conquer her? What is the extraordinary value of Serbia to Russia, that, at the mere threat of war, and before a shot had been fired, the czar’s armies were summoned together as hurriedly as troops can be summoned together in Russia? These are the questions that should be asked if the problem of the outbreak of the war is to be properly understood.”

“Constantinople the Grand Prize”

“The answer is this: Serbia, a small but powerful Slav country, is the only buffer state in the Balkans that bars the approach of Austria to the Aegean Sea. Saloniki, the chief port to the northern side of the eastern Mediterranean, lies less than three hundred miles from Belgrade, the Serbian capital, which is itself situated on the very borders of Austria-Hungary. Clearly, it is all to the advantage of any great power which has interests in the Aegean, in the Balkans generally, or in Asia Minor, that Saloniki should be in its possession, and that the way to Saloniki should be at all times open without the shadow of a doubt.

“Two great powers have vital interests in Asia Minor and the Aegean. They are Russia on the one hand, and Germany plus Austria on the other. Up to 1908, the strength of Turkey rendered the two groups impotent; they could express vain wishes without taking steps to realize them. . . .”

“The long struggle between the Teutons and the Slavs for the possession of the Balkan Peninsula was to be fought out. Serbia’s paramountcy meant that Russia would dictate the policy of the peninsula; Serbia’s decline would mean the end of Russia’s prestige in the peninsula, as well as the end of Serbia herself. That—the struggle for Asia Minor—is the sole reason why Europe has been plunged into war.”

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

“Writers who can tell a stupefied world what this fearful portent means, who can throw light on the great fundamental problems of the race, and give some hint as to its destiny, will have an attentive and even anxious audience.” — Springfield Republican.

Unquestionably this great war belongs to a series of epoch-making events which lead toward one great culminating event in the history and destiny of the human race.

“It is not in reality one event that has changed the world. It is a world-change that has culminated in a great event.” — Dr. Hobhouse.

Great Nations Speak for Themselves

Austria

The foregoing statement of the case is supported by representatives of the different nations at war. The North American Review for September, 1914, contained an article from Dr. Dumba, entitled, “Why Austria is at War with Russia.” Dr. Dumba was then Austrian ambassador to the United States. He said: “The war between Austria-Hungary and Russia may well be said to be the outcome of conflicting civilizations and conflicting aims. The controversy between the Dual Monarchy and the Serbian Kingdom is only an incident in the greater struggle between German civilization as represented by Austria-Hungary, and Russian aspirations as represented by Serbia, the Russian outpost on the southern frontier of the Dual Monarchy.”

THE CROSS ON WHICH THE PEACE OF THE WORLD HAS BEEN CRUCIFIED

“The natural expansion of the Germanic empire of Austria toward the Near East began after the permanent expulsion of the Turkish hordes by the victories of Prince Eugene of Savoy. Parallel with the Austrian expansion southeastward went the Russian advance toward the Black Sea. In an effort to avert a clash in this parallel but gradually concentrating expansion, the Emperor Joseph and the Empress Catherine met late in the eighteenth century—1787—in the Crimea, and reached an agreement for the dismemberment of Turkey. “Under this project of monarchs the western part of the Ottoman Empire, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, now the bone of contention between Austria on the one hand and Russia on the other, was apportioned to Austria. To Russia were allotted the regions now known as Roumania and Bulgaria. It was at this period that the Russian dream of the possession of Constantinople, first broached in a mystical will of Peter the Great, began to assume reality as a governing principle of Russian policy in southeastern Europe.”

Count Berchtold, foreign minister of Austria-Hungary, says: “Austria-Hungary looks upon this war as a purely defensive one, which has been forced on her by the agitation directed by Russia against her very existence. Russian statesmen wish to form an iron ring of enemies around Austria-Hungary and Germany, in order that Russia’s grasp on Constantinople and on Asia should never again be meddled with. . . . Germany knows that Austria-Hungary’s enemies are her enemies, and that the dismemberment of the Hapsburg monarchy would mean the isolation of the German Empire.”

Germany

In the Independent, Dec. 7, 1914, Dr. Bernhard Dernberg made the following statement for Germany:—“Germany has been for about thirty-five years the associate of Turkey in developing Turkish territory, commerce, and industry. She has acquired the Oriental railways and built the Anatolian and Bagdad lines. She has established harbors and shipping companies, and engaged in mining and very extensive irrigation works. She must be left with a free hand to go on with this commercial development as far as she can arrange with the sovereign power of

the Porte and without outside interference. This would mean a recognized sphere of influence from the Persian Gulf to the Dardanelles.”

Russia

In explaining to the Russian Duma the dangers that threatened the empire, M. Sazonoff said: “The plans for the domination of Germany over the Turkish Empire comprised the formation of an enormous German-Mussulman Empire, extending from the Scheldt to the Persian Gulf. Such an empire, which appears in the dreams of Pan-German as a new caliphate, to which by historic analogy the name ‘Caliphate of Berlin’ would be adopted, is, according to them, to strike a mortal blow at the historic existence of Russia and Great Britain. It is a terrifying dream, but God is merciful!”

In a recent issue of a leading Petrograd paper, Prince Eugene Troubetzkoi explains Russia’s policy in the following emphatic language: “Our friends and our foes alike ought to know what is the point of view of the Russian nation, as well as what is said by diplomacy, the one and only solution which accords with the state interests of Russia; namely, Constantinople and the strait must be Russian. Every other solution, whatever its nature, is impossible of acceptance by us, because every other would only make the position for us worse than it was before the war began. . . . Nothing less than the independence of Russia is bound up with this question of the strait.”

Great Britain

The editor of the London Saturday Review, March 6, 1915, states the situation from the British viewpoint. He says:—“The cause of the reversal of British policy in the Near East, which has passed almost without comment here as on the Continent, is bound up with, but plainly lies far deeper than, the Austrian ultimatum to Belgrade. The threat to Serbia was a culmination of a steady German thrust toward the East. The main difficulty in the German path in the Near East, the little kingdom of Serbia, was to be got out of the way by Austria; and, that ‘necessity’ accomplished, Germany would have had the clear road which she desired to Turkey, where her ambitions have grown since the visit of William II to the late Sultan with a grandiose project of financial, commercial, and ultimately political dominance on the Golden Horn and eventually through Asia Minor.”

“The first had been completely attained, and Germany’s absolute control of Constantinople has been demonstrated to the whole world.”

“The second had yet to be fulfilled; but it was on the road to fulfilment. The tortuous and intricate history of the Anatolian and Bagdad railways during the last fifteen years is sufficient evidence of the gradual penetration of German influence through Asia Minor.

“The B. B. B. line—Berlin, Byzantium, Bagdad—was an instrument of German policy in which millions of German money had been invested, and in whose success the Deutsche Bank in particular was deeply involved—how deeply it is still a matter of conjecture. This huge scheme, which had made considerable progress, had added enormously to the already great influence of Germany in Asia Minor.

“British opinion no longer has any misgiving concerning the approach of Russian influence toward Constantinople. Disraeli’s policy was constructed before the first steps had been taken in Egypt. It was conservative, and the times are now revolutionary. Germany’s action has revealed to us the menace of a Near East under Teuton rule, a menace which would have been far more formidable than anything which the past generation of British statesmen imagined from Russia.

“Since its foundation sixteen centuries ago, Constantinople, by position and natural destiny, has been one of the key-cities of the earth. It has been many times attacked and twice conquered. Its second conquest, like its foundation, marked the end of an epoch and changed the history of the world. Its third conquest can do no less.”

These National Viewpoints Summarized

Thus it is clear that through territorial expansion, increase of populations, agricultural, manufacturing, and commercial development, and international alliances a world-change has been effected which presents many vitally conflicting interests. These clashing interests have finally culminated in the most serious clash of nations the world has ever seen. No satisfactory adjustment seems possible. Great Britain does not consent to surrender any of the great over-seas possessions of her far-stretching empire. As long as she holds Egypt, India, and Australia, she must control the Mediterranean highway. She must

continue to hold such strategic positions as Gibraltar, Suez, the Persian Gulf, and Singapore. To surrender these would be to invite the dismemberment of her empire.

Russia’s situation and policy seem equally vital to her existence. She has extended her conquests over a vast area and many peoples. Only the land area of her empire is equal to one seventh of the land area of the world, while her population is about one eighth of the world’s population. Her natural resources are very great, but she requires an adequate highway to the world’s markets in order to reap full benefit from them. She has been struggling for that highway for centuries. It was to secure a road through the Baltic that Peter the Great moved the capital from Moscow to the Baltic marshes and began the building of Petrograd. But Germany established her naval base in the Baltic between Petrograd and the ocean, thus placing an effectual menace in Russia’s road.

Then Russian statesmen turned their eyes toward the Pacific. At great expense and toil and patience they built a steel road across the plains of Siberia to Vladivostok and Port

Arthur. Here they were met by the Japanese and cut off from the ocean highway.

THE FAMOUS ST. SOPHIA MOSQUE IN CONSTANTINOPLE

Again Russia turned to her natural highway, the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, which she had been endeavoring to secure for more than a century. But here she found that Germany had all but succeeded in throwing a bridge across the Bosporus at Constantinople which would effectually block her road through the Bosporus and the Dardanelles to the Ægean and on to the world’s markets. Believing that the German road threatened her very existence, Russia decided to stake all in the endeavor to prevent its completion.

This brings us to Germany’s interests. She found herself an inclosed empire without what she considered suitable access to the markets of the world. Her only outlet was through the North Sea. But this was controlled by England. Thus she found herself in exactly the same position in which she had placed Russia in the Baltic. Eventually she turned eastward, and began a vast enterprise to secure possession

of the Persian Gulf. If she could establish a highway from Berlin to the Persian Gulf, she would not only secure an open road to the world, but she would place herself in a position to completely dominate Russia, and seriously threaten England’s vast empire at any time it might seem necessary to her own interests. She claimed that with England’s highway already established, and Russia’s road about to be driven through from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, her own existence was imperiled.

Austria’s situation was similar to that of Russia and Germany. Her only outlet was down the Adriatic, the lower part of which was guarded by the forts and warships of Italy. For this reason Austria has always looked to the Ægean Sea as her only safe, adequate road to the oceans. With this in view her steady policy has been to hew out a clear path to Saloniki. But the Turks and the Slavs of the Balkan Peninsula have always stood in her way. This has been true of Serbia especially.

Serbia, being supported by Russia, effectually blocked Austria in her drive to the Ægean, and also Germany in her drive to Constantinople and on to the Persian Gulf. It appeared to both Austria and Germany that this ring drawn around their eastern and southeastern boundaries meant their ruin. For this reason they decided to break it at any cost.

As for France and Italy, they both feared the results of a Teutonic victory. Their position in the Mediterranean was such that they felt safer under the paramountcy of England and Russia, and therefore joined them against the central powers.

These conditions are so vital to the very existence of these different powers that they see no way of surrendering their ground. Yet they clash so violently that it seems impossible to hold it without war. Of course in the end some or all must give way. They have unsheathed their swords to reach a settlement. The price being paid is staggering.

THE VITAL ISSUE

Briefly and simply stated, the Eastern Question is, What power shall control the territory along that natural waterway connecting the Black Sea and the Mediterranean?

“Access to, free passage through, or control of, the Mediterranean is the permanent objective behind the foreign policy of all the greater European powers. . . . It is an objective, however, that lies at the very industrial and commercial life of Great Britain and Russia; that is bound up with all the ambitions of Germany, and that underlies the industrial and financial aspirations of Italy and the Balkan States. For the Mediterranean is the greatest trade route in the world. It is the gateway from the Occident to the Orient.”—Frederic C. Howe.

THE BONE OF CONTENTION

“Constantinople is the bone of contention between Christian and infidel, between Teuton and Slav. It is a stupendous drama that is being unrolled at the Golden Horn—a modern scene of the most vivid nature, with a background crowded with memorable figures and historic events. Whatever the climax, the tumultuous happenings of these current months stir the imagination of the world, and will powerfully affect its future.”—Washington Post.

HANDS WIDE OPEN TO CATCH THE PRIZE

“The real bone of contention in the present struggle is Constantinople. The day of the Turk in Europe is practically at an end. In the minds of the rulers—kings, emperors, presidents, chancellors—and in the minds of the leaders of the armies, ‘Constantinople’ is probably the slogan sounded deep down in their hearts, and kept tightly bottled up in the backs of their heads. . . . There is the real impulse of the present war. Constantinople, a position of wonderful advantage, must fall into new hands, and all are wide open to catch the prize.”—Los Angeles Times, Aug. 8, 1914.

CONSTANTINOPLE A KEY-CITY OF THE EARTH

The roads of the European nations cross at Constantinople; and on that cross “the peace of Europe was crucified.” The sword will never be sheathed until Constantinople, the Bosporus, and the Dardanelles pass from Turkey into the hands of some other great power or combination of powers.

Continue reading: The Struggle Foretold by Prophets