The European Conflict by S. M. Butler

Review and Herald Publishing Association · Washington, D. C. · Aug 13, 1914

The European Conflict

By S. M. Butler

S. M. BUTLER

EUROPE is apparently entering upon a titanic military struggle. The immediate cause of the conflict is the anti-Austrian demonstrations that have been going on in Servia for some time, culminating June 29, of this year, in the assassination of Austria’s crown prince, Francis Ferdinand, and his wife, by a Servian student while the royal pair were on a visit to Bosnia. Failure on the part of Servia to satisfy Austria’s demands for reparation led Austria to declare war against Servia. Armed conflicts have already taken place between these two powers. If this were the real cause of the trouble, doubtless diplomacy would have found some way of settling the matter without resorting to war. We must seek much further for the underlying motives.

Alignment of European Nations

In order to understand the situation, it will be necessary to consider briefly the political alignment of the great European powers. Europe is divided into two great military camps, known respectively as the Triple Alliance and the Triple Entente.

The Triple Alliance, consisting of Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy, was formed in 1882 through the influence of Bismarck. This piece of diplomacy was considered the greatest achievement of Bismarck’s foreign policy. Its purpose was to curb Russia’s ambition in the Balkan States, and prevent France from engaging in a war of revenge against Germany.

The Triple Entente is composed of England, France, and Russia. In the event of a conflict between these two gigantic alliances, the smaller states will line up according to their respective interests, some probably remaining neutral.

Contributing Causes

The interests of the powers composing the Triple Alliance, which just now seem to be driving them on to war, may be summarized thus: The real question is one of nationality, with race hatred, which is deep-seated in humankind, a strong supporter. Apparently Germany nourishes the desire to weld together and become the leader of the Germanic elements of the Continent, and make them dominant over the Slavic peoples of southeastern Europe.

Commercialism also enters into the question. Germany has a highly organized and complex industrial system, and an ever-increasing population. Markets must be found or made for her wares, and homes for her people. If she can crush France and Russia, and establish a great Germanic federation, she will be in a position to cope successfully with England, which will then be her only remaining rival.

The Geographical Situation

A glance at the map will show that Austria occupies an insular position. Germany forms one third of her boundary, Russia another third, while the Balkan States hem her in on the south and southeast. Her purpose in forcing the issue with Servia is clearly the annexation of that state, the union of all the southern Slavs under the Austrian crown, and the extension of the dual kingdom to the Ægean Sea. Furthermore the stability of the Austro-Hungarian kingdom is very much threatened by certain discordant elements existing within itself. While it is a constitutional kingdom, it is governed by a small ruling class very much on the old order of the divine-right-of-kings theory. The Hungarians in Hungary hold the controlling power, and the Germans in Austria, notwithstanding that the non-ruling classes are greatly in the majority in both cases. It is quite generally conceded that the cementing bond is the aged emperor Francis Joseph, to whom his subjects are much attached. When he is removed some sort of readjustment, it seems, must come. A foreign war might serve to allay the discord for a time and continue indefinitely the authority of the Hapsburg crown. If this should be the case, it would only be history repeating itself. The union of the German Empire was completed by the Franco-Prussian War.

Italian Interests

Italy, the third member of the Triple Alliance, has much less to hope for from a general European war than either of her allies, and will doubtless take only an indifferent interest in their activities. She cannot forget that Austria was not so long ago her oppressor. At this writing she has announced her intention of remaining neutral. It is a question, however, in case a general conflict comes, whether she can long maintain a state of neutrality.

France’s Grievance

France has a grievance that she has nourished for nearly a half century.

The terrible chastisement which she received at the hands of Germany in the Franco-Prussian War of 1870, followed by the loss of the French provinces of Alsace and Lorraine, are still fresh in the memory of the French people. For more than forty years they have been preparing for a war of revenge, and while they have not forced the issue in the impending conflict, they will doubtless not be slow to meet it.

England and Germany

If the Germanic element, which is hostile to England, should become dominant in the Balkan States, England’s route to India by way of the Suez Canal might be seriously menaced. It was to make her route to India more sure that England acquired a controlling influence in the canal. Furthermore there has been for a long time a growing commercial rivalry between Germany and England. This rivalry has in no small measure dictated the naval policy of the two nations. It has long been a matter of common expectation that sooner or later this rivalry would lead to armed conflict between these two powers.

Russian Integrity Threatened

When Austria attacked Servia, it was inevitable that Russia would come to the support of Servia with all the force of her tremendous resources. Both her natural and her political instincts compel her to do this. Russia is naturally the leader of the Slavic peoples, and for many years has stood as the protector of that race in the Balkan States. To abandon them now in their hour of trial would be to surrender forever her leadership. Politically Russia has everything to lose by permitting Germany and Austria-Hungary to get control of southeastern Europe.

Russia is preeminently, for all practical purposes, an insular power. Peter the Great made a fatal mistake when he gave her an inland capital. The successors of that great monarch have made strenuous efforts to undo his mistake. The coveted place for the seat of empire is the beautiful city on the Bosporus, Constantinople.

Russian Designs

The Crimean War, 1853-56, and the Turco-Russian War, 1877-78, were waged for the purpose of unseating the Turk. In both these conflicts Russia lost because of the interference of other powers. Driven from Constantinople, she turned her attention to the Far East. But here again she was foiled in her hunt for an outlet to the world. Japan, fearful that her supremacy in that quarter would be destroyed, attacked Russia before she was in shape to make successful resistance.

It is inevitable, then, that Russia must turn her attention once more toward the south. Her centuries-long policy of expelling Turkey from Europe will be pursued with renewed energy. It is unthinkable that she will permit Austria and Germany to plant themselves squarely across her pathway without exhausting all her resources to prevent such a calamity.

What are the chances for her success if the impending conflict develops into a deadly struggle between the Triple Alliance and the Triple Entente? No one can make predictions with any certainty that his forecasts will be fulfilled. The preponderance of men, of money, and of guns is on the side of the Triple Entente. Besides, it is almost certain that the leading Balkan States will side with the Entente, in case these powers should find themselves hard pressed. The interests of Holland and Belgium also will lie in the same direction, so that they will either remain neutral or cast their fortunes with those of England, France, and Russia.

The Eastern Question

If all this should come to pass, what would it mean to the student of prophecy? The prophet Daniel declares of the ‘king of the north,’ Turkey, that ‘he shall come to his end, and none shall help him.’ Dan. 11: 45. With the remapping of Europe that would certainly follow a general war such as now seems imminent, Russia would almost certainly be given control of the whole Balkan Peninsula, if indeed it was not made an integral part of her territory.

England, once the most determined and alert opponent of Russia’s Turkish policy, and the leader of the powers in their efforts to frustrate that policy, is now in complete working agreement with Russia, and her land and naval forces are likely to be found fighting side by side with those of Russia to prevent Austria’s blocking the czar’s way to Constantinople. At any rate, Russia will have England’s active sympathy in the struggle. Moreover, England has lost the strongest motive she ever had in opposing Russian advance upon Turkey. Her opposition was always mainly prompted by self-interest. Russia was regarded by England as a rival, and a menace to her hold upon India. That danger England considers now removed.

If the war should go on and be fought out to its finish, and this analysis of the position and interest of the powers concerned be shown mainly correct; and if the forecast of the probable results should prove even approximately true, it would readily appear that, in all human probability, Russia would not be long in disposing of the Turkish question. When the Turk comes to his end, Michael is to stand up, or take his kingdom.

We are living in times that are pulsating with living issues.

Washington (D. C.) Missionary College.