p. 1 | THE NEXT WAR

Seventh-day Adventist Publishing Association · Battle Creek, Mich. · Oct 3, 1878

THE NEXT WAR.

The correspondent of the Boston Herald, writing from Paris, Aug. 6, 1878, says, that in December, 1877, it was the opinion of well-informed political students in Germany that England did not wish to fight Russia; that a declaration of war by Russia would have been the only casus belli, and this England wished, on no account, to provoke. The secret memorandum signed by Count Schouvaloff and Lord Salisbury contained a clause to the effect that, if the Congress failed, it by no means implied hostilities between England and Russia. The war agitations were carefully engineered, and Beaconsfield secured what the government desired,—a popular support. When the plenipotentiaries returned from Berlin, nothing was wanting to make the triumph complete save the reality of the so-called benefits. For the “peace with honor” is little better than a European farce in three acts, and the Beaconsfield policy is based upon too narrow a foundation, upon principles too poor, to live against modern ideas of the relations of the government to the governed. He has always struggled for the supremacy of the monarch as opposed to the welfare of the people, and he will continue to do so. Ten years from now, the English will bitterly regret the cheers for their premier the present summer. For what has the policy of the last three years procured the English people?

What Great Britain gains by the Cyprus burglary is only trouble. I say burglary; for she entered the Turk’s house when he was too weak to say no, and seized Cyprus under the flimsy promise of protection to its owner against enemies. Such protection is the old fable of the camel asking permission to bring its head within the folds of the Arab’s tent. The policy which finally won India will be revived until the whole of Asia Minor and Egypt is under the “Dieu et Mon Droit” government. This must be the termination of the Disraeli policy, or England dwindles to a position of absolute political worthlessness among nations, a second, but richer, Holland. With Cyprus, she sinks or swims, and the policy by which the burglary was consummated will leave her no friends. All possible efforts were made by her to prevent the assembling of the peace Congress. England would never consent to enter the Radziwill palace so long as a single line of the San Stefano treaty lay hidden in the Russian portfolios. Honor demanded that everything should be open and above-board on the part of Russia. British integrity was, of course, sufficiently pure and disinterested not to allow of any secret agreements on her part. The noble Jew at the head of Her Majesty’s government was incapable of duplicity; he had outgrown the traditions of his race. And, with this feeling, this implied promise that the parties to a mutual bargain were bound by the same reciprocal restrictions, the Congress met at Berlin. The moment the end of the Russian concessions was reached, the gentlemen who made “peace with honor” allowed the fact to escape, that, in defiance of principles exacted from others, they had carefully buttered their bread beforehand. No more was heard of the broad principles of humanity, the welfare and the law of nations that demanded an honorable frankness. Can one wonder that Monsieur Waddington, when approached by the British premier touching the giving of Palestine to France, drew himself up and replied, with a dignified manliness that was once British, “I desire to return with clean hands.”

The Russians went home gratified at the gains for their war, and unanimously delighted at the clever way England had supported the ultimate aim of Russian diplomacy. Italy retired from the halls empty-handed, but materially strengthened, to

feed on her next misfortune. Germany received Russia’s receipt for the debt due since 1866. Lords Beaconsfield and Salisbury crossed the Channel to walk on roses, to receive the plaudits of the multitude, and to take from the hand of their sovereign their answer to all critics,—the golden letters on the band: “Honi soit qui mal y pense.” To Austria was given the legacy of the Congress, the next war. The peace with honor is the first prelude to the war of disgrace. And of those who signed the death warrant of Austria no one will in the future be accorded a greater share in the ignoble act than the punctilious guardian of England’s public honor, the man who shouted “thief” while in the act of stealing.

The next war will be the death blow of Austria. The long-persisted-in policy of Russia is coming rapidly to a conclusion. For years it has been her desire to erect a wall of Pan-Sclavonic States from the Baltic to the Ægean, a broad strip of people united on the ground of common Sclavonic origin, and forever a barrier to western interference. Behind such a wall of race prejudice, the designs of the czar could be worked to a conclusion, undisturbed by the wishes or will of Western Europe. The dissolution of the Austrian-Hungarian monarchy is absolutely necessary to this step. The machinery for such dissolution is ready upon the ground; it needs but a touch upon the button and the explosion follows. The fundamental idea that possesses Prince Bismarck being the completion of the “old German empire,” or the weakening of his neighbors, and the popular agitation in Italy being “Italia irredenta,” or some spoils, Russia has no fear that parties interested will thwart her designs or place the military veto upon her projects. Germany will help France in passive helplessness. England has taken her goods in out of the wet, and will make no effort to stop the deluge. All others are active conspirators.

The agitation for this war has already begun in the Russian papers; the Sclav races are not slow to understand the part they are to play. The moment war is declared, there will break out all over the empire agitations against the government, and at this the Magyars will assist. The recent elections testify to the growing dissatisfaction prevailing in the Hungarian half of the kingdom. These agitations will render the task of the Russian troops far easier. Italy will ally herself with Russia as soon as the czar declares war. With Italy and Russia opposed, while Germany keeps all other dogs off, who can doubt the result for Austria? The pretext for the war will arise in the difficulties of the Austrian occupation. Montenegro will never give up one foot of the territory conquered in the late struggle, and will, with her immediate neighbors in Bosnia and Herzegovina, resist to the death. It will be impossible for Austria to remain beyond her borders without provoking hostilities with Servia. An Austrian attack on Servia or Montenegro will furnish the Russians with a pretext. Italy will find her pretext for allying herself with the czar in the violence of internal agitations in favor of recovering her rightful territory. Germany, as master of ceremonies, with an eye on the seaport of Trieste, will manage all rivals or friends, and take her reward at the close of the contest.

Austria dissolved, a movement for the reconstruction of Poland will at once be begun in Russia. This will be accomplished and on a Pan-Sclavonic basis, and the triumph of Russian diplomacy will be complete. The Eastern question will then first have a settlement as far as Western Europe is concerned. The wall of Sclavonic prejudices, of Sclavonic temper, of Sclavonic solidarity, will be erected. On the one side of this will be Russia, on the other Germany, and every anxious inquirer as to the condition of any nation or the designs of holy Russia will be met with the time-honored check: “What are you going to do about it?”

Probably many of your readers will call this an alarmist’s view of the situation, and will instantly suggest a thousand reasons against such a chapter of events and consequences; but it is the opinion of several men well calculated to predict, including a correspondent of the London Times, who knows all the East as a book, and a careful study of the telegrams and newspapers shows how everything is working to the end suggested. Russian papers, Italian papers, Austrian and Eastern journals, are bristling with disgust, and urging on the beginning of the end, the commencement of the last act. The English people have always been noted for a steadiness that in the end recovers any balance momentarily lost. This will not fail them now. They have already begun the sober second criticism that looks beneath enthusiasm, and peers behind excitement to the facts beyond. This is the way a London paper, a paper by no means habitually inimical to the government, summarizes the debate in Parliament on the treaty of Berlin:—

“The plea of the ministers was: ‘It is true that we have introduced a new system of concealing from Parliament our policy until it is too late for it to protest; it is true that we have frequently conveyed a false impression by our utterances; it is true that we addressed a dispatch to Lord Odo Russel before we knew that our agreement with Count Schouvaloff would see the light, which was intended to hoodwink the nation; it is true that we promised the Greeks to defend them, and then threw them over; it is true that we protested against secret treaties, and then entered into one ourselves; it is true that we vowed our mission was to maintain the integrity of the Ottoman empire, and that we have carried out our mission by depriving her of more than she lost by the treaty of San Stefano; it is true that we have aroused the jealousy of France and Italy; it is true that we have assumed most serious responsibilities in Asia Minor of questionable advantage to the nation; but—we have imperial instincts instead of insular instincts, we are in favor of a greater England instead of a lesser England, therefore cease to carp and criticise. We have the approbation of our sovereign, and we have the support of a majority in the House of Commons, therefore waste no further time in protesting against the mode in which we have carried into effect our instincts, but prepare to pay the bill for them.’”

This is not the last of such utterances. France, in the person of M. Gambetta, has announced her intention to form alliances, and naturally, in view of the impending troubles. When the storm will break it is not so easy to say, but those who have given me their prognostications will be very much surprised if a year from now does not either see the next war in violent progress, or a peace in process of birth. But come it will, and come soon; perhaps the Christmas snow will be stained in blood; perhaps the May flowers. But when it comes it will be for Disraeli and England, disgrace; and for Andrassy and Austria, the fulfillment of the remark by Metternich, “Après moi le déluge.”